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A solar milestone
It took five decades for the US to install its five-millionth solar development this spring. More than half of all solar capacity in the United States was installed since 2020.
The challenge? Scaling and adding ten million more by 2030.
10 billion people powered by the sun
Imagine with me a future in which 10 billion people consume affordable energy primarily from the sun. How clear would our sky be? How clean our air? How equitable our society? How peaceful?
I'm reflecting on Nobel Prize winner Robert E. Smalley's Terawatt Challenge which was launched in the early 2000s. He asserted that to meet the needs of the world's future population of 10 billion people with a dwindling oil supply and the exigency to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the world would need to convert its 14-Terawatt (TW) fossil fuel energy system to at least a 30 TW renewable energy system by 2050.
His go-get was to tackle the engineering challenge of reducing the high costs of solar electricity with smaller generation from wind and biomass.
The world lost Smalley's genius to illness too soon, so we can only guess how he would have revised his challenge since its launch. Twenty years later, I imagine the pace of electrification and the advancements in energy storage and distributed energy systems might change his calculus some, but his overall challenge remains directionally correct.
The recent COP 28 goal is 10.5 TW of renewables by 2030 to be on track to get to be global net zero by 2050.
Progress shines
We are adding more solar faster
The total, global installed renewable energy capacity reached some 3.9 terawatts by the end of 2023. That's about 30% of global electricity generation coming from renewables. Just last year, the world added about half a Terawatt (510 gigawatts) of renewable generation capacity according to the International Energy Association. Which was 14% more renewable growth than seen in 2022.
Costs are down
The world has risen to Smalley’s challenge and the cost of residential, commercial and utility-scale solar have declined over the past decade as documented by NREL.
Pace expected to accelerate buoyed by storage
Bloomberg New Energy Finance reports that the US alone can expect 1 TW of new solar and wind capacity over the next decade. Coupled with energy storage, BNEF predicts increased electrical generation capacity of 80% despite planned fossil fuel power plant retirements.
With breakthroughs in energy storage the solar moonshot of zero carbon is in reach. According to NREL, the US needs 6 TWh of energy storage to reach Zero Carbon generation.
Basking in the strength of the sun
Earlier this century (funny to type that) I earned a certificate in Appreciative Inquiry from Case Western Reserve University. One of the AI principles is that by focusing on the strengths of a system, we can make its weaknesses irrelevant. Every day we are gifted 120,000 TW of energy from the sun that shines on the Earth. It is perhaps our greatest strength.
Smalley's hypothesis is that if the world could solve for affordable renewable energy, then it would go a long way in solving the world's other top ten problems.
1. Energy
2. Water
3. Food
4. Environment
5. Poverty
6. Terrorism and war
7. Disease
8. Education
9. Democracy
10. Population
You can learn more about Smalley's analysis of the role of solar and renewable energy in general in solving those problems in Turk Pipkin’s documentary, Nobelity. Below is an excerpt with Smalley on Solar Energy and a New Future.
The Poetic Principle
Another principle of Appreciative Inquiry is the ‘Poetic Principle’ which reminds us that what we focus on grows. I think the focus and the results of the Terawatt challenge is a testament to the efficacy of the Poetic Principle.
Also, here’s a good poem about my favorite star:
Why I Wake Early
Hello, sun in my face.
Hello, you who make the morning
and spread it over the fields
and into the faces of the tulips
and the nodding morning glories,
and into the windows of, even, the
miserable and crotchety–
best preacher that ever was,
dear star, that just happens
to be where you are in the universe
to keep us from ever-darkness,
to ease us with warm touching,
to hold us in the great hands of light–
good morning, good morning, good morning.
Watch, now, how I start the day
in happiness, in kindness.
~Mary Oliver
Terawatt 101
What is a watt? A watt is a measure of energy flow or power. One watt per second is 1 joule of energy.
What is a joule? A joule is equal to the amount of work done when a force of one newton displaces a mass through a distance of one meter in the direction of that force.
What is a kilowatt? There are 1,000 watts in a kilowatt.
What is a megawatt? There are 1,000,000 watts in a megawatt.
What is a gigawatt? There are 1,000,000,000 watts in a gigawatt.
What is a terawatt (TW)? A TW is equal to 1,000,000,000,000 watts.